May estimate suggests a 2.4% boost, surprising many beneficiaries.
The Cost of Living Adjustment (COLA) for Social Security in 2026 is currently projected at 2.4%, making it potentially the smallest increase in the last five years. According to recent data, this figure is below the 2.5% awarded for 2025, raising concerns among retirees and other recipients who are already dealing with rising expenses.
In May, the nonpartisan senior advocacy group The Senior Citizens League (TSCL) announced that the 2026 estimate had been adjusted slightly upwards from 2.3% in April, but it still lags behind the inflation rates some experts say older adults are experiencing. Many beneficiaries are disappointed, wondering if this modest increase will keep pace with their everyday costs.
Why the 2026 Social Security COLA is generating concern among many retirees
A significant number of Social Security beneficiaries feel that a 2.4% boost simply will not cover basic needs like health care, housing, and groceries. Could a shift in the calculation method help? Some economists think so.
They point to the Consumer Price Index for the Elderly (CPI-E) as a more accurate gauge of senior spending than the current Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). However, any official change remains a topic of ongoing debate.
How the Consumer Price Index affects the 2026 Social Security COLA calculation
COLA is based on the CPI-W, which may not reflect the actual expenses of many retirees. Health care costs, in particular, tend to rise faster than other goods and services, leaving some beneficiaries struggling to keep up. TSCL’s revised estimate for the 2026 COLA is a direct response to slight inflation growth, but critics argue it still falls short of addressing real-life challenges. Below is a brief table highlighting select COLA rates over the years:
| Year | COLA Increase |
|---|---|
| 1980 | 14.3% |
| 1984 | 3.5% |
| 2023 | 8.7% |
| 2025 | 2.5% |
| 2026* | 2.4% (est.) |
The difference between historical double-digit hikes and today’s modest numbers reflects broader economic changes. In fact, 2023’s 8.7% surge was the highest in more than four decades, but predictions for future years paint a far more cautious picture.
If you rely on Social Security benefits, now might be the time to review your household budget. You may want to explore additional resources or assistance programs, especially if health-related costs are expected to rise further.
In conclusion, while the latest 2.4% estimate for 2026 could help some beneficiaries offset inflation, it may not fully keep pace with everyday expenses. Analysts recommend staying informed about possible adjustments to the CPI measure and any legislative proposals that could impact benefit amounts.
English